Tropical Storm BERTHA Advisory 5月27日

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Tropical Depression Bertha Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data indicate that the
center of Bertha continues to move farther inland across central
and northern South Carolina.  Based on surface observations, the
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 kt, with these
winds mainly along the coastal areas to the east of the center.
Additional weakening is expected as the system moves farther
inland, with Bertha forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure
area on Thursday, followed by dissipation on Thursday night.

The initial motion is 340/13.  The cyclone is located between the
subtropical ridge to the east and a large deep-layer low pressure
area over the lower Mississippi River valley.  These features
should steer the system and its associated rainfall generally
northward during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast before dissipation between 24-36 h.  The new
forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track
based mainly on the initial location and motion.

This is the last advisory on Bertha issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 11 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH,
and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across
portions of northeastern South Carolina into west central to
far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia.  Ongoing river
flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 34.4N  80.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/0600Z 37.0N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1800Z 41.7N  79.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven