Tropical Storm THIRTYFIVE Advisory 12月27日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
312 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED BUT ILL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND A 261705Z AMSR2 36 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TD 35W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A
GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SAMAR ISLAND,
PHILIPPINES (PHL) AROUND TAU 36 AND EXITING THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) PRIOR TO TAU 72. MODERATE TO STRONG VWS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 35 KTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PHL.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT SLIGHTLY AND
STEER TD 35W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SCS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL AND ANY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. BASED
ON THE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS BEING 145 NM BY TAU 120, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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