Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory 12月4日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A 031801Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) AND A 031810Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T4.1 (67 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
24 AS IT CONTINUES FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24,
TY 29W WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN A STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW
AND GRADUALLY TURN EQUATORWARD. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG (25 KNOTS) VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TY 29W THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH THE SURGE FLOW CAUSING MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU
48. TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED CAUSE
SPREAD TO INCREASE. AFUM IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH AN
ERRATIC TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
LATE FORECAST TRACK SPEED UNCERTAINTY.//
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