Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory 11月26日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 002 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH VERY EXPANSIVE (OVER 800NM ACROSS), ALBEIT SHALLOW AND
FRAGMENTED, RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS ON THE MSI AND
INTERPOLATING FROM CLOSELY-CLUSTERED AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES (T1.5/25KTS-T2.5/35KTS) AND REFLECTS THE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSES REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE, AND VERY WARM (>30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR UP TO
TAU 36, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 160NM SOUTH OF GUAM. AFTERWARD, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS
THE COL BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY, BUILDING STR TO THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO OVER 600NM BY TAU 120.
THIS, PLUS THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP DTG.//
NNNN
NNNN