MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS EVIDENCED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE 201658Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT LINED UP WITH THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE. TS 28W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK UNDER THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A BIT MORE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE VWS (40KTS+) UNDER THE JET STREAM WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AFUM AS THE SOLE, ALBEIT MINIMAL, LEFT OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN