Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 11月20日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF AN ALMOST
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR ASCAT PASSES
TO ASSIST IN PLACING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5-2.5 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55
KNOTS AT TAU 36. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND LUZON AT
TAU 72 AS STRONG (30-35 KNOTS) SHEAR IMPEDES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK AS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JGSM. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH A GUIDANCE SPREAD OF 250NM AT TAU 48.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF LUZON. INCREASING VWS (40-50 KNOTS) WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN VERY BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF TRACK WITH
NAVGEM AS THE EXTREME NORTHERLY OUTLIER AND JGSM AS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERLY OUTLIER. AT TAU 96 THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IS
600 NM LENDING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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