Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory 10月30日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER
AS FORMATIVE BANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, ALBEIT STILL
FRAGMENTED, BEGAN TO WRAP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS
OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BY TRACING LOW CLOID FEATURES IN THE
ABOVE EIR ANIMATION TOWARD THE CENTRAL OVERCAST AND LINED UP WITH A
WEAK NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 291626Z 36GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS. UL AND
LL ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
(>25-KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE IN THE SOUTHC
CHINA SEA OFFSET BY ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-32C) ALONG-
TRACK SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE IN ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR,
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18 OVER THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM,
APPROXIMATELY 170NM SOUTH OF DA NANG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 35KTS BY TAU 12;
AFTERWARD, A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL INTO THE
RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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