Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory 10月10日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. BASED ON THE MSI AND A 092300Z MHS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS BASED ON T1.0 (25 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES ALONG
WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA DEPICTING 20-24 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 17W
IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT ) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TD 17W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 17W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THROUGH
TAU 36, TD 17W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 45 KTS JUST AFTER LANDFALL
SOUTH OF DANANG, VIETNAM. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF VIETNAM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF NAVGEM WHICH DEPICTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH DIVERGES AT TAU 24, THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
ONLY A 50 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
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