Tropical Storm GONI Advisory 10月29日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 281919Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC. GIVEN THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF TS 22W, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0
FROM KNES AND T2.5 FROM PGTW. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND
UNDER LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING PLENTY OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING IN THE STR, WITH LANDFALL IN CENTRAL
LUZON EXPECTED BEFORE TAU 96. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TS 22W INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF LUZON PRIOR TO EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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