Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory 8月6日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
051716Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE IMPROVING STORM
STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 10W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 10W HAS
A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 10W
IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES BUILD. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TS 10W TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AS TS 10W TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM TD 11W AND TY 09W WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN
TAIWAN. LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL CAUSE TS 10W TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96. ALSO BY TAU 96, THE STR TO
THE NORTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE TS 10W
TO TURN NORTHWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
IN CENTRAL CHINA AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 340 NM BY TAU 120,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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