MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NARI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND STRIPPED OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN HONSHU NEAR KUSHIMOTO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEEP TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IN THE LOW LEVELS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT ON THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE HAS CRESTED THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. B. TD 07W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN ADDITION TO LAND INTERACTION, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24 AS IT DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HONSHU. REMNANTS OF TD 07W WILL EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF SENDAI. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN