MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07 (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS STARTING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 250005Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. A 242141Z F-17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH LIMITED BANDING TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY OF T1.0-1.5 (25 KTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC WITH 10-20 KTS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 07W ARE MARGINAL WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (20-25 KTS). TD 07W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. BY TAU 48, TD 07W SHOULD BE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH TRACK SPREAD LIMITED TO 50NM AT TAU 48. CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND OFFSET UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PREVENT TD 07W FROM INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, LAND INTERACTION AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TD 07W. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD OVER COOLER SEAS (24-26 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH TRACK SPREAD LIMITED TO UNDER 40NM AT TAU 96. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM.// NNNN NNNN