Tropical Storm HAGUPIT Advisory 8月3日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RADAR IMAGERY AND A 021656Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITON. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM HATERUMA, LOCATED 29 NM SOUTHWEST OF ISHGAKI-JIMA,
SHOW A WIND SHIFT, CONFIRMING PASSAGE OF TS 03W TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLAND. BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5
(45-55 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD/RCTP AND A 021810Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (47
KTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (>30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
SYSTEM, SLOWLY DEGRADING THE OUTFLOW IN THOSE REGIONS. TS 03W IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 24. TRANSITING OVER
WARM SST, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY TAU 12 THEN INCREASING VWS SHOULD HINDER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA AS IT SHIFTS TO TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER LAND DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS. AS TS 03W REEMERGES
OVER THE WEST SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOL
(22-23 CELSIUS) SST WITH SYSTEM DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A NEAR-CONSISTENT SPREAD OF ABOUT 105NM AT TAU
48 AND TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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