Tropical Storm SURIGAE Advisory 4月14日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
27 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON 131910Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC FROM ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK FIX OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF 29 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
REORIENTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN IMPROVED CROSS TRACK
SPREAD OF 110NM BY TAU 72 WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINES AND JGSM SHOWING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK,
WITH THE REMAINING MODELS FALLING BETWEEN THE TWO. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 02W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE FORMED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
EASTERN ASIA. AFTER THE STR BREAKS, TD 02W WILL TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FEATURE POSITIONED TO ITS EAST, DRIVING
IT FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL REACHING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 120.
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 120, TD
02W IS EXPECTED TO REACH 115 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT EVEN
MORE TO OVER 250NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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