Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory 11月24日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 677 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACTED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE COLOR-ENHANCED 231741Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 34W IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL PICK UP SPEED AND TURN
NORTHWEST-WARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BRING IN DRY AND COOLER AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
RAPID WEAKENING TREND - DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS AN
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH THE
SHAPE OF THE FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SPAN AND
TIMING, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MAN-YI WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THIS, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS, WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING A SPAN OF OVER
500NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN