Tropical Storm THREE Advisory 3月17日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON INDICATIONS OF
SHALLOW FEEDER BANDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD IN THE
EIR IMAGERY AND THE WIND DIRECTION (FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST) OF
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT KOROR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 AND T1.0,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK
OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO
CONDUCIVE AT 27-28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TD 03W ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATING OVER MINDANAO PRIOR TO
TAU 72. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND MAY SUPPORT MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND, LATER, LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT TO
OVER 400 NM WITH NAVGEM AND GFS BOUNDING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
EXTREMES, RESPECTIVELY. OF NOTE, THE NORTHERN MODELS (NAVGEM AND
ECMWF) FOLLOW A WESTERLY TRACK AND MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION OVER THE
PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.//
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