Tropical Storm THREE Advisory 3月16日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 151623Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LIMITED OUTFLOW. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTENT AND PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS NEAR MINDANAO. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS NORTH OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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