MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1017 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CDO, THANKS TO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 281610Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS) WHILE A 281641Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS 61 KTS, GIVING US LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TY 29W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARDS A COL IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 29W WILL BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS, NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH ABOUT 90 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE INTENSITY DECREASE IS DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. WITH 120 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 120, NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. AS A RESULT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN