MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND ORGANIZED AS RAIN BANDS TUCKED CLOSER TO A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, LINED UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 271611Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A VERY WARM (>30C) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. A TRANSITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BREAK THE STEERING STR AND DRIVE TS 29W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE COL AND INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, A NEWLY-FORMED STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT, AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL STEADY, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION TO 120KTS BY TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KAMMURI WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE SECONDARY STR AND OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD SOUTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FUEL AND SUSTAIN INTENSIFICATION TO 125KTS. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, OFFERING AN UNLIKELY POLEWARD TRACK SOLUTION INTO THE STR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE THE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AND THE STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN