Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 11月22日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AVAILABLE TO VIEW
THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55KTS IS BASED ON AN RJTD/RCTP CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 28W IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-35KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TS FUNG-WONG IS LOCATED
NEAR THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS
CONTINUING TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. THE INTENSITY OF TS
28W WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INTERACTION WITH THE JET STREAM
AFTER TAU 18 RESULTING IN ENHANCED VWS (40-50KTS). BY TAU 36, THIS
JET STREAM INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN VWS
(+70KTS) AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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