Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 11月21日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS EVIDENCED BY
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE 201658Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
LINED UP WITH THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE. TS 28W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK UNDER THE STR. AFTER
TAU 24, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS THEN
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL FAVOR A BIT MORE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE VWS (40KTS+) UNDER THE JET
STREAM WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AFUM AS THE
SOLE, ALBEIT MINIMAL, LEFT OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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