Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory 11月8日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM NORTHWEST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 071548Z AMSR2 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A
071740Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 79 KNOTS. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 24W (HALONG) WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD WHILE GRADUALLY
TURNING NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THESE
COMBINED DYNAMICS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS RAPID DECAY, AND BY TAU 48
WILL BE REDUCED TO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD AS IT COMPLETES ETT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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