Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory 10月5日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 28//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GREATLY REDUCED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS UNRAVELING OUT TO OVER 350 NM FROM A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARM PIXELS IN THE EIR LOOP
THAT FIT DEAD CENTER INTO A LARGER LLC IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND NEAR
CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES OF T3.5/55-KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL GREATLY ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, IN THE LOW LEVELS, LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND CAUSING
GRADUAL DECAY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND WILL
BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 36, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) ON A FAST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 48, TS 30W WILL COMPLETE ETT AND
TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
HONSHU. VERY HIGH VWS, LOW OHC, AND COOL SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE, WITH THE
INTENSITY FALLING TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT TS 30W WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF FORECAST.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODELS WITH SLOW AND WIDE TRACK TENDENCIES
DURING RECURVATURE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36; THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36, ACROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS INCREASE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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