Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory 2月14日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MASS NOW
OVER OPEN WATER. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A WEAK LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 141850Z 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY DISRUPTED AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO WITH NOTED MID-LEVEL
TURNING DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF THE BEST TRACK POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS, HEDGED LOWER THAN AN RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), AND BASED ON LOCAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH MULTIPLE STATIONS REPORTING MSLP OF 1009 MB. TD
02W IS POSITIONED JUST EQUATORWARD OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
DEEP-LAYERED  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTIVE AROUND 27 CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED WITH A TRACK DISPLACED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 96.
   B. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER OPEN WATER. PEAK INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO REACH 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WHILE IN AN AREA OF HIGH
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SSTS. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
TD 02W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36 TD 02W WILL TRACK OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER SSTS. UNSUPPORTIVE SSTS, WORKING IN CONCERT WITH PERSISTENT
WIND SHEAR WILL UNDOUBTEDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 48. TD 02W
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS A REMNANT TROPICAL LOW AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE EXACT SYSTEM TRACK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION IS AMPLIFIED IN FURTHER FORECAST POSITIONS. OVERALL
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN