Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory 2月11日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTH OF
NGULU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC EVIDENT IN THE 101821Z 37 GHZ
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE AND INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. DUE TO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND A FORECASTED
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR TS 02W
HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY.
   B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TOWARD MINDANAO,
PHILIPPINES. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, EVENTUALLY REACHING
A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, LAND INTERACTION WILL PREVENT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM
WILL EXIT INTO THE SULU SEA PRIOR TO TAU 72 AT AROUND 60 KNOTS
INTENSITY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 02W WILL CROSS THE SULU SEA, PASS
SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA AND TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAME STR. ONCE OUT
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, VARIES IN ALONG TRACK
SPEED IN THE LATER TAUS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST TRACK AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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