Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory 10月22日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC CONVECTION,
SUPPORTING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 211719Z SSMI
85 GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE EYE. TY 22W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 211602Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS AND DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND
RCTP, AND ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). A 211654Z
OBSERVATION AT PGSN (15.1N 145.7E) REPORTED WINDS OF 23 KTS, GUSTING
TO 34 KTS. TY 22W IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT
CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE DUE TO A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 CELSIUS. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
PRIOR TO TURNING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRANSITS
THROUGH REGIONS OF LOW VWS AND HIGH SST. THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT
CELL WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO INHIBIT OUTFLOW, THUS LIMITING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU
48, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 60 NM AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AND IT
INCREASES TO 160 NM BY TAU 72. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS VWS INCREASES (>40 KTS), TY 22W WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN DESPITE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CREATED BY THE
TROUGH INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOLLOWING THE
RECURVE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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