MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29 CELSIUS) SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL DISSIPATING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DAVAO, PHILIPPINES BY TAU 36. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL COULD CAUSE LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND ALTHOUGH TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36, THERE IS A CHANCE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BASED ON THE SPREAD REACHING 96 NM BY TAU 36, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN