Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory 12月24日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH TY 33W. THE CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS BASED ON A 231800Z
HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING STRONG CONVECTION
INDICATIVE OF A TYPHOON STRENGTH STORM. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW
FAVORABLE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG
WITH GOOD NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TY 33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 48. THROUGH TAU 24, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS FORECAST FROM TAU 12
TO TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY TEMBIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VWS, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND. TY 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 48 AS IT SKIRTS
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM. TY 33W WILL THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE
GULF OF THAILAND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, WHICH REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 33W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A
WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TY 33W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT, TY 33W WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN