Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory 12月18日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISPERSE AND STRAY WESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED AND UNRAVELING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER
PALAWAN. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED WITH STRONG (30 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION.
TD 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TD 32W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, THE CYCLONE WILL
EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). HOWEVER, AT
THE SAME TIME, THE TD WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE. IN VIEW OF THIS, VWS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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