Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory 12月15日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
150000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC AND CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 142235Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 40 KNOTS WITH TWO OF THREE SATCON MEMBERS INDICATING 44 KNOT
WINDS. THIS IS HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) ALONG WITH STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TS 32W IS BEING
STEERED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH ONLY ONE
CONSENSUS MEMBER INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD TRACK DUE
TO THE POSITION OF THE STRS WHICH ARE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO FAVORABLE SSTS (29 DEGREES CELSIUS), HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. TS 32W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 WHILE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRS TO
THE NORTH.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 32W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT JUST BEFORE TAU 96. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEYOND TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING THAT TS 32W WILL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED
CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN