Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory 11月16日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, ELONGATED, RAGGED, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE EIR LOOP ALSO INDICATES THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE LOW CLOUD
ELEMENTS IN THE EIR LOOP INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM RJTD AND IS
SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A COL
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 27W WILL REMAIN QS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. AFTERWARD, THE STR
TO THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. BETWEEN TAUS
48 AND 72, THE STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT NORTHWARD, AND
GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LUZON. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 50KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS AFTER LANDFALL.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG VWS, COLD/DRY SURGE,
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL GREATLY OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND
ERODE THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY AND INTO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KALMAEGI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE SECONDARY STR, NOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST, AND AROUND
TAU 84, EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE THE COLD/DRY NORTHERLY
SURGE IS MORE VIGOROUS. THIS, PLUS THE HIGH VWS, WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY BROAD
AGREEMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STORM MOTION IN THE COL
AND ACROSS THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN