Tropical Storm MINDY Advisory 9月10日

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Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been
devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged
over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to
the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends
northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a
large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and
surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less
well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north
side.

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to
become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become
post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based
on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it
is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than
forecast.

Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a
motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast
philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward
at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a
deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States.  Once the
trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little
on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster
than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial
position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 32.0N  78.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 32.9N  74.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 33.8N  71.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen