Tropical Storm JERRY Advisory 9月18日

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   3(23)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   2(29)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  23(32)   1(33)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   1(25)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   1(23)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   1(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  14(30)   1(31)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
FORECASTER BROWN