Tropical Storm PILAR Advisory 9月24日

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   1(13)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   2(14)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   7( 8)  22(30)  15(45)   6(51)   1(52)   X(52)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)  14(27)   2(29)   1(30)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

SAN BLAS       34  1   5( 6)  16(22)  12(34)   6(40)   1(41)   X(41)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

P VALLARTA     34  2  22(24)  19(43)   6(49)   2(51)   1(52)   X(52)
P VALLARTA     50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34 22  25(47)   6(53)   1(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MANZANILLO     34 13  16(29)   4(33)   X(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
MANZANILLO     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECASTER STEWART