Tropical Storm SALLY Advisory 9月16日

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   6( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

ST MARKS FL    34  2   6( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)

APALACHICOLA   34  5  12(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  4   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 12  24(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34 47  28(75)   4(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  2  13(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  2   7( 9)   8(17)   8(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BIRMINGHAM AL  34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  2  23(25)  17(42)   4(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

WHITING FLD FL 34 73  19(92)   2(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
WHITING FLD FL 50  7  38(45)   7(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PENSACOLA FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PENSACOLA FL   50 22  34(56)   4(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
PENSACOLA FL   64  1  12(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MOBILE AL      34 87   7(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
MOBILE AL      50 28  27(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
MOBILE AL      64  2   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

GULFPORT MS    34 66  10(76)   X(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
GULFPORT MS    50  7   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

STENNIS MS     34 27  12(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
STENNIS MS     50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BURAS LA       34 23   6(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  9   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

JACKSON MS     34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  5   6(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FORT POLK LA   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LAKE CHARLES   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAMERON LA     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PENSACOLA NAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PENSACOLA NAS  50 58  18(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
PENSACOLA NAS  64  6  18(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

KEESLER AB     34 88   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
KEESLER AB     50 25   7(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
KEESLER AB     64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
FORECASTER BROWN