Tropical Storm JERRY Advisory 9月19日

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   1(17)   X(17)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  15(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
FORECASTER BLAKE