Tropical Storm KAREN Advisory 9月24日

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

PONCE PR       34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

VIEQUES PR     34  3   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAINT THOMAS   34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT CROIX    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

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