MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 191647Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CONFIRMS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KNOTS). TD 33W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). TD 33W HAS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. IN THE SHORT TERM TD 33W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES. BY TAU 36, TD 33W WILL TRACK OVER THE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SULU SEA. AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96 WHILE UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES). NEAR TAU 108, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM. AS TD 33W TRACKS INLAND IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN