Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory 9月29日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION DEEPENED AND FORMATIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH, HAVE
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS OBSCURED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE 291615Z AMSR MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T5.5/55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
FORMATIVE EYE SIGNATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 30W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FUEL GRADUAL AND POSSIBLY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO 220 NM BY TAU
72. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THAT IS LAID NEAR THE CONSENSUS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KONG-REY WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT WITH EEMN AND
ECMWF OFFERING A BIFURCATED SOLUTION TO THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE AND CTCX TO THE RIGHT MARGIN. IN VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD
(OVER 500 NM AT TAU 120), THE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
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