Tropical Storm LARRY Advisory 9月5日

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Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye
remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of
-75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several
hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within
the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB
suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt.

Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no
change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any
notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory,
due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A
northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days
to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is
forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in
the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then
northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies.

Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal
influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow
for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days,
despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the
cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing
oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have
been two of the best performing models for Larry's intensity thus
far.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.  Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek.  These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along
these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local
officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week.  While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 20.5N  50.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 21.6N  51.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.7N  53.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.9N  54.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.3N  56.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 26.8N  57.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 28.5N  59.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 32.8N  61.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 39.8N  58.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto