Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory 11月8日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396
NM WEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SHALLOW AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A CLOUD NOTCH FEATURE SEEN IN AN 071800 HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POOR
OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS).
HOWEVER,
PROXIMITY TO THE MALAY PENINSULA IS CUTTING OFF MOISTURE INFLOW AND
INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE
OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
20 KNOTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN,
THAILAND, NEAR TAU 3 AND CROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA. AFTER TAU 12, TD
29W WILL EXIT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA AND INTENSIFY TO 25 KNOTS AS
OUTFLOW IMPROVES, PEAKING TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TD 29W WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
PRESENT IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRACKING THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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