Tropical Storm DAMREY Advisory 11月3日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 021750Z HIMAWARI
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON
PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 28W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 KNOTS). EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS TAPPED INTO THE JET LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND KEEP
THE TRACK OF TS 28W WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN VIETNAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS TS 28W TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA IT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS TS 28W NEARS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THIS INTERACTION WILL ALLOW
FOR TS 28W TO INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24 JUST PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM. AFTER LANDFALL, TS DAMREY WILL DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. BY
TAU 36, TS 28W WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS OVER THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA
THROUGH TAU 60. AFTERWARD, TS 28W WILL ENTER THE GULF OF THAILAND AS
A 20-KNOT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
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