Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory 11月22日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS WEAK FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLC) THAT HAS MADE ANOTHER LANDFALL, THIS TIME INTO NORTHERN
PALAWAN ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND CURRENT STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TD 33W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND EXIT INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FREE OF LAND INTERACTION,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
DYNAMICS RESUME, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72 PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKES LANDFALL, THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN. LAND INTERACTION WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT BY TAU 120. THE SPREAD IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE GROWS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD.//
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