MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 261244Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 25-29 KT WIND BARBS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND ABOVE THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SSTS), AND OUTFLOW LIMITED BY TD 34W APPROACHING THE MIDLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL JET, THUS LEAVING TD 34W UNABLE TO SUPPORT ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION. TD 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 34W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND SOME MESOSCALE MODELS PREDICT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36, WHEN TD 34W WILL HAVE COMPLETED ETT AND WILL HAVE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EXCELLENT CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT, LENDING TO OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN