MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// RMKS/ SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 32// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 NM WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER, WITH SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 251134Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 60 KTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY BUOYS AND SITES ON JEJU ISLAND 15- 40 NM AWAY REPORT WINDS FROM 23-33 KTS, WITH PRESSURES FROM 981-984 MB. ABSENT TERRAIN EFFECTS, 981 MB WOULD SUPPORT 55 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 30W IS BEING AFFECTED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A CYCLONE BUILDING OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THOUGH CONVECTION IS STILL COVERING THE CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 26C AND NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO A 051100Z AMSU CORE TEMPERATURE CROSS-SECTION, TS 30W IS STILL A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 30W HAS ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 12, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES C AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 30W WILL COMPLETE ETT AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A BROAD, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRANSITIONS, MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BY TAU 36, MODEL SPREAD EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER NAVGEM IS 96 NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN