Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 11月19日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W
(TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 523 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 190911Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.0-2.0 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SST, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48. TD 27W WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON AT TAU 72 AS STRONG (30-35
KNOTS) SHEAR IMPEDES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A GUIDANCE
SPREAD OF 200NM AT TAU 48.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. INCREASING VWS
(40-50 KNOTS) WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED AT TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH
THE DIRECTION OF TRACK; HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK IS CURRENTLY
HEDGED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GROUPING (JGSM, ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE). THE NORTHERN GROUPING OF GLOBAL MEMBERS (NAVGEM AND
AFUM) EXPECTS A TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN. THIS UNCERTAINTY LENDS
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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