MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 17// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 051750Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE EYE AND THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 09W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TY 09W ALSO HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 09W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 09W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BY TAU 03, TY 09W WILL MAKE LAND FALL IN SOUTHERN KYUSHU. LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE TY 09W TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY, REACHING 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. ALSO BY TAU 12, 09W WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TY 09W NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36. FRANCISCO WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IS PASSES OVER OPEN WATER NORTH OF KYUSHU AND SOUTH OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. BY TAU 36, 09W WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 09W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN