MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 85NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN EIR IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 261539Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AND A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN EARLIER (261105Z METOP-A) PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS AND HEDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 29W HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A 261000Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS TD 29W IS A VERY WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM. TD 29W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TD 29W WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN