MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 28// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STY 26W IS REINTENSIFYING AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A 33NM EYE, AND A DISTINCT BANDING FEATURE. A 131516Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND EXCELLENT SPIRAL BANDING. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 (140 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (155 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST (29- 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE. STY 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE. B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 24. STY 26W WILL MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, STY 26W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF LUZON, RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR TAU 36 NEAR 120 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK WITH A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72 (MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS ONLY 65NM). C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN