MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 151623Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTENT AND PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS NEAR MINDANAO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS NORTH OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN